The ward map

Where the lost sales of 2025 immigration enforcement landed in Cook County, by ward and neighborhood, with every assumption adjustable. Part of Midway Blitz impacts, block by block. An allocation of the UIC Great Cities Institute estimate i · full method

What is UIC's and what this map adds UICadded

Taken straight from UIC's study (Hunkering Down, 2026):

who is exposed: each block group's Latin America-born share from the ACS; the top 40% of Cook County are "high"
how much trips fell: a dose-response difference-in-differences on weekly foot traffic: the coefficients, the baseline trips per high block group, and that only trips out of immigrant neighborhoods fell
what a trip is worth: $58 retail / $33 restaurants, from the Economic Census; the $1.26B a year headline and its confidence interval; the 8.5% blended sales-tax rate

Added by this map to put their county number on neighborhoods:

spreading each region's baseline trips across its high block groups by population, and anchoring the county total to UIC's headline
a gravity model with distance decay for where the withdrawn trips would have landed, over business counts rescaled to Google Maps coverage
the Midway Blitz window and how deep the contraction ran in it (UIC did not separate the operation from the year)
roll-ups to wards and neighborhoods through census blocks and business locations, and the City of Chicago's own tax rates

Steps and controls below carry the same two badges. Full detail: the full method.

Show

Metric

Totals

withdrawn by Chicago residents

lost by Chicago businesses

City sales tax lost

withdrawn countywide

lost by suburban businesses

sales tax lost, all governments

Reproduction check

Top areas

Area		per …

How an area's number is computed

Click a ward, neighborhood or block group on the map.

Assumptions · only those that move the metric shown

Control total i

Anchor added

Annual total

Who withdrew i

High = top share of block groups UICi

Coefficients UICi

Dose-response strength addedi

Baseline trips spread by addedi

$ per retail visit UICi

$ per restaurant visit

Where the trips would have gone addedi

λ, Chicago origins i

λ, suburban origins

Business counts i

Group-quarters block groups addedi

Group-quarters share above

Inside immigrant neighborhoods addedi

Reading

Effect at a 19% share i

Shape i

Rate at a 40% share i

The Blitz window addedi

Start

End i

Depth i

Custom depth

Sales tax i

All governments UIC

City of Chicago, retail added

City of Chicago, restaurants

Export this scenario

Paste into assumptions.json and run the build to publish it.

Caveats and sources

An allocation of a countywide estimate, not a measurement of each area. UIC's $1.26B is an order-of-magnitude figure (95% CI $0.83B–$1.67B) for formal in-person retail and restaurant commerce, from one foot-traffic panel. The destination side rests on a gravity model and business counts. UIC does not separate the September operation from the enforcement year. The treatment is a neighborhood-level proxy and says nothing about any individual's status.

Data: UIC Great Cities Institute, Hunkering Down; ACS 2019–2023; 2020 Census blocks; TIGERweb; © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) via OSM US Layercake; Ward Wise Google Maps sweep (aggregates only); City of Chicago boundaries. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.